S.C. Democrats Hope for a Close Race
By Lauren Bach
After 32 years of voting red, could the Palmetto State turn blue? Polls suggest not, but the S.C. Democratic Party hopes to see U.S. Senator Barack Obama pick up the state’s eight electoral votes.
“There are enough people out there to turn the state blue,” says Kyle Cox, state director of Campaign for Change at the SCDP. However, a recent Winthrop/ETV poll of likely voters gives U.S. Sen. John McCain a 20-point lead in South Carolina. “Likely voters” are voters who know where to vote, who are registered to vote and who have voted before or vote regularly.
Twenty points is a large gap to close. Nationally, Obama leads McCain by 5 to 12 points, depending on the poll, in this last week of October.
The key to a high Democratic turnout is getting people to a voting booth, says Gina Smith, staff reporter covering the Democratic campaign for The State newspaper.
For Keiana Page, SCDP communications director, that means mobilizing S.C. Democrats and “heading off problems before they start, problems like voter suppression and discouragement.” Since the Democratic primary in January, the SCDP has registered 30,000 new voters through coordinated outreach efforts by field directors, such as Lance Jones and Cherie Mabrey, and by unpaid volunteers.
“There's about 240,000 new registered voters in this state this election cycle. The assumption is that many of those new voters are Obama supporters,” says Smith.
Thirty percent of the new registrants are young people, between the ages of 18 and 30, according to Page at the SCDP.
Smith also reports that the latest news release from the State Election Commission records 500,000 new voters since the last presidential election.
The youth vote has the potential to significantly influence the outcome of the 2008 presidential race. Cox argues that this important voter demographic is not accurately reflected in the polls, which are conducted through landline telephones. The majority of youth voters use cell phones, and a recent Pew Research Center survey shows that just 10 percent of respondents who use landlines are under age 30.
Cox also says polls deal with “likely voters.” However, “Barack Obama’s main constituency are not ‘likely’ voters.” And this is what the S.C .Democratic Party hopes to capitalize on.
South Carolina is not the only traditionally red state where Democrats are tightening the race. Obama leads McCain by a small margin in North Carolina – a state that has voted Republican since 1980 – and by nearly10 points in Virginia – a state that hasn’t voted Democrat since 1968, according to a CNN poll taken October 21.
However, winning South Carolina is still a long shot for the Democrats. The state forecast for November does not favor Obama. “No air time has been purchased here in South Carolina. That's because South Carolina isn't in play,” says Smith.
“Obama's greatest effect in South Carolina will be his impact on down ticket races,” says Smith. “If we see mass numbers of Obama supporters show up at the polls next week, they're not just going to vote for Obama. They're also going to vote for Democrats in variousS.C. Senate and House races and local elections.” The down ticket includes the congressional race and other political races below the presidential contest.
Based on past voting trends and current polls, it is not likely that Obama will take South Carolina. But, if the Obama campaign and the SCDP have succeeded in mobilizing those “unlikely” voters, there is a chance that South Carolina will see more blue in statewide politics, as well as a much closer race between Obama and McCain than anticipated.
Bach is an undergraduate English major at Columbia College, a liberal arts women’s college in Columbia, S.C.
